Hi Colm

I'm no authority on your specific topic, but I do know a bit about things like change and innovation.

Nothing (well very very little) springs up fully formed. It is all incremental as people build on what came before. It seems to me that all the musical forces in "that geography" would have been intermingling, much like what happens in technology in Silicon Valley.

Change happens because people mix and mingle according to their interest, and share their ideas, accomplishments, stories etc.

So from that observed generality, I think you can start making your case. The reality is, if they were "there", and part of the music scene, they influenced the direction of the music that sprang from "there".

Ask yourself. Why are there so many musicians in Nashville and what happens when they get together? Who influenced "X" (insert uyour favourite artist here)

It really is that simple.

So IMO as long as you can identify individuals who played with other musicians in the South before the Blues were popularized, you're 80 percenty there.

But I would disagree with your thesis that it sprang from Native music. It sprang from the cultural mosaic of the South at that time and the conditions the people and musicians faced back then.

If writing ever becomes work I think I'm going to have to stop