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Here's what I think. In these first days, when there are 1000 or so songs...remember that a great deal of these songs have not yet been judged, so they likely are placed in the order they were posted. Your song at #200 goes up against a song at #800, and if #800 wins...they're both gonna jump...drastically!
But after a couple weeks, things begin to stabilize more, and by the end of the month, I think it all gets very close to an accurate picture of public opinion.
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